Had another opportunity to be a guest on the VUC (Voice Users Conference). Also joining us on the call was Derek Jacobs and Mike Hill from CounterPath. We covered the release of Bria 3.2 specifically Multiple IM & presence (and initial Social Networking) support as well as the new Outlook ribbon/panel for Office 2010. We also discussed the latest versions of Bria for iOS and Android. The call was lively and certainly got into product, market and technical depths typically found on the VUC weekly calls including a great conversation on Bluetooth and VoIP.
Please check out the post and audio clip on the VUC or listen to the clip here:
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Came across an interesting infographic from Hunch. It depicts how PC and Mac users differ demographically and more interestingly how they view themselves. With the world split 90% / 10% (PC vs. Mac), it is amazing to learn of the differences among the user groups and compare everything from political points of view to fashion sense. One thing is for sure there are clear divides between PC and Mac users. I find myself straggling both the PC and Mac stereotypes as reported by the infographic. Then again I do run VM on my Mac in order to run Windows (and Linux). :-)
The results are in: LTE is clearly the Broadband winner. I conducted a non-scientific test utilizing the free Spreedtest.net app from Ookla to compare AT&T’s 3G (Apple iPhone 4), Verizon’s (Motorola Droid X), Sprint’s 4G/WiMax (via Clear) (Samsung Epic), Verizon’s (HTC ThunderBolt) and AT&T’s U-Verse VDSL (2Wire GW over 802.11n). Using Speedtest.net I ran each test leveraging a local Chicago-based server that provided upload and download results. Other than the U-Verse test, I tested each device from downtown Chicago at the same location. The following screen caps show the results of the tests:
AT&T’s 3G (UMTS/HSPA) via iPhone 4:
Verizon’s 3G (EVDO) via Droid X:
Verizon’s 4G (LTE) via HTC ThunderBolt:
Sprint’s 4G (WiMAX/802.16) via HTC:
AT&T’s U-Verse (VDSL) via 2WIRE GW + 802.11n:
Clearly LTE is the winner. I will retest in the future as more subscribers migrate to LTE and increased the load across signaling and data consumption.
As the PC market matures mobile devices are the focus for growth. However, tablets have wedged themselves between PCs and mobiles. Speaking of PCs, it is my opinion that our beloved computers are on the decline. According to Gartner, PC shipments in first quarter of 2011 suffered the first year-over-year decline in six quarters. The analysts are now scrambling to try to understand why there is a decline. Some believe it’s due to tablets. I believe it’s due to the simple fact that PCs are incredibly powerful today and don’t require frequent upgrades as they did in the past. Regardless, the results are in from Gartner:
Meanwhile Mobiles, particularly smart phones, are taking off in a big way. As I posted earlier, over 1.4 billion mobiles shipped in 2010. I believe in 2011 we will see slightly higher volumes of handsets with 50% or more being smartphones. Over the last year tablets have made a significant mark on the mobile industry. In fact, nearly 18 million tablets shipped in 2010. Even more impressive is that Apple captured 83% of the market. I believe by 2012 we will see more than 100 million tablets ship. Beyond the numbers, I am more interested in the significant new tablet segment that is being created between PCs and mobiles. Morgan Stanley recently presented great research on this topic:
My point of view is tablets have found their niche and are not (full) replacements for PCs. With that said I do believe they will start to erode PCs in the future when they can play the role of a computer in everyday use. We are getting closer to that point with the release of the Motorola Arix 4G:
I believe this is a solid glimpse of the future. As mobiles (including tablets) become more powerful they will take the place of the traditional PC. And to be clear (as I stated above) tablets are NOT cannibalizing the PC market today-this is an absurd notion. No tablet can adequately perform better than a PC today from a productivity standpoint.
Another point of reflection based on the data above: mobility and connectivity drive usage. The chart from Morgan Stanley entitled: “Why We’re Bullish: Mobile Internet Computer Cycle” lays this out. Notice the figure on the left of that chart. It illustrates as devices become smaller, mobile and are connected to the Internet usage grows exponentially.
The net-net of this is we will all be using more of our tablets and mobiles as we migrate away from PCs. My prediction is within the next two years many of us will be docking our mobile or tablet and connect it to our monitor at work, home, coffee shop and other venues. I look forward to that day.
It’s no doubt if you are reading this post you have discussed, debated and/or formed your own opinion of the announced AT&T and T-Mobile merger. And if you are like many that I have heard or read on the subject you probably think it’s a bad thing. I say: who cares? If anything it’s a better thing for you and me. The following are the main points of opposition that I have been hearing regarding the AT&T and T-Mobile combination:
This will create a monopoly.Not really. Considering the definition of a Monopoly is: “the exclusive possession or control of the supply or trade in a commodity or service” I wanted to provide a few counters to this. First, mobile operators do not control the ecosystem today. Even more, the ecosystem today is managed by a sector diverse number companies. From computer (e.g., Apple), Internet (e.g., Google) and network equipment providers (e.g. Alcatel Lucent). Second, consider that AT&T will have a total of 129.27 million subscribers post merger or 43.46%. Verizon will have 94.14 or 31.65% of the subscribers in the U.S. The remaining 74 million or 24.88% is scattered amongst five mobile operators. With seven healthy competitors in market, AT&T does not have a monopoly.
Mobile plans will shoot through the roof. Maybe. After all AT&T is second only to Verizon in terms of ARPU (Average Revenue per User). Well, actually it is close (2010E): $50.77 (Verizon), $49.85 (AT&T), $54.77 (Sprint), $45.57 (T-Mobile), $40.50 (MetroPCS) & $38.29 (Leap)¹. More importantly, looking at the actual plans (AT&T vs. T-Mobile) I did find that individual plans were more expensive but the family plans similar. The bottom line is if customers don’t see the value of “AT&T-Mobile” they have six other choices.
The combination will reduce innovation. This is absurd. Mobile operators do not innovate. They never have and never will. The great innovation we see comes from companies that develop phones and applications that leverage the mobile network.
Most of these arguments have a nice veneer, but as you look just under the superficial layer of rhetoric, you realize we will all be just fine. I personally look forward to the combination and certainly am excited about more capacity and higher-speeds that T-Mobile will bring. As you can see from my iPhone screen cap below I am already enjoying the benefit.
(OK, the graphic is a late April Fools joke).
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¹ Bank of America Global Wireless Matrix September 2010.
As you probably heard Google and Sprint have announced integration of Google Voice with the Sprint network. This enables Google Voices subscriber base of over 1.5 million¹ and Sprint’s 49 million users to use Google’s growing service. The integration enables Sprint users to use their mobile phones with Google’s single identity service. Here is a video interview with Vincent Paquet, Google’s product manager for Google Voice that details the service integration:
The two most significant aspects of the service combination is: (1) Sprint is allowing Google Voice to be the (only) voicemail repository and (2) you may use the Google Voice services with any Sprint handset².
However what is seriously lacking are computer and mobile softphones and tighter integration of mobile / VoIP services. I understand Google is all about the cloud but there are many users that simply want to use a softphone on the mobile or desktop machine. Also missing is tight integration of the mobile and VoIP services. I would have thought there would be highly differentiated services based on network integration between the two services. However, the integration is at arms length at best. In fact much of what Sprint and Google Voice is already offered today with smartphones — especially Android based phones. As an example, I still have no idea what my Verizon number is on my Droid X. When I setup the phone it took over the identity of the phone using my Google Voice number. All my voice mail and messaging are tied to my Google Voice number. As I mentioned above the Sprint announcement does allow Sprint feature phones to be used with the Google Voice service. However I have to ask how many Google Voice users don’t use Smartphones?
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¹ Last published data was from regulatory documents published in October 2009.
² Some Sprint customers such as corporate customers are not eligible for the Google Voice service.
There was a lot of coverage this week regarding LinkedIn’s promotion recognizing each individual user of their service. My number is 60,733. Each user was sent a Thank You note that identified the user by their registration number. Even more impressive was LinkedIn leveraged other Social Networking services to announce they now have over 100 million users. Here is my letter:
Read the news yesterday that LinkedIn broke 100 million users. A far cry from Facebook’s 580 million plus, but still an impressive number. Especially when you consider the service is growing at a rate of 1 million users per week. I got to say LinkedIn is the best of the old Social Networks. They had a service before the industry even coined the term Social Networking. Now the company is moving towards a model that opens up their network to others plus brings in other networks to their service. They have created a status feed that is being used by more and more people and of course is the network of choice to connect to other professionals. I am really excited about LinkedIn and hope to see them deploy a VoIP/Messaging service across their service (hint, hint). For now check out these great infographics:
Since Apple has recently pulled MobileMe from the stores and is only offering a trial now (and only publishing pricing) it would seem an update is coming soon. I recently posted my wish list for MobileMe and wanted to give an update on what I think is coming to the MobileMe service. Apple has not published any recent data on the number of MobileMe subscribers, but it’s believed that the struggling service has well under a million users. In September 2009 Apple claimed to have only 100,000 subscribers (back then the service was called .mac). Many of the features that Apple charge for are free from Google, DropBox and others. It is clear to me Apple needs to have a base service for free with other premium services offered for a monthly subscription fee. Here is what I think we will see in April from Apple regarding MobileMe:
The base MobileMe service will be free. Apple will give away the equivalent of what Google is offering for phone / device synchronization. Apple will focus only on their devices including computers and iOS devices. For those of us that have Android devices we can still use Google’s sync services to augment device synchronization. Apple will charge for iDisk storage (at least additional storage capacity) and other premium services.
iTunes / MobileMe will blend. Your iTunes content will be available to you no matter where you are in the world. It will be like your own Netflix. Unlike Netflix, you will need to either purchase iTunes content or provide your own.
iLife/ MobileMe will blend. iLife, especially iPhoto and iMovie will merge into the MobileMe cloud enabling users to post their content with ease and also mashup with other applications and services. It will be even easier to post your iOS based videos and computer-based iMovies. [As a side note, currently the file formats used in iOS and OS 10.6.x versions of iMovie are not compatible with each other. I hope this changes soon.]
MobileMe will support personal clouds. In order to save Apple money plus reduce costs for MobileMe subscribers I believe home networks will be leveraged as mini clouds accessible via MobileMe. In other words if you have an AirPort Extreme or Time Capsule you will be able to extend connected NAS drives plus other computers on the home LAN. It will be an extension of the Back To Mac service. Reminds me of another service. Check out this ad from Microsoft:
MobileMe is becoming more strategic for Apple as they grow the number of devices in their product offerings. For users like me that have a tablet, multiple mobiles and computers MobileMe is becoming a necessity. It enables my work files, contacts, e-mail, content, system settings, browser bookmarks and schedules to follow me and stay synchronized. If Apple does a major update of MobileMe like I think they will, life will get even easier.
AT&T announced today that it will acquire mobile operator T-Mobile. I believe this is the first shot across the bow that will engage Verizon Wireless to get its M&A engine in gear to make similar acquisitions. Specifically I think Sprint’s days are numbered and will become part of Verizon Wireless sooner than later. This make the most sense in order to compete with AT&T. In terms of the AT&T / T-Mobile deal here are my thoughts:
It’s about time. With voice revenues under pressure and customer acquisition costs high (see chart below), AT&T acquires T-Mobile’s base of more than 33 million. This adds up to approximately 130 million subscribers for AT&T or just over a 40% market share. Verizon Wireless now is a distant second with 94 million subscribers. More importantly this gives AT&T access to additional spectrum. Specifically gives AT&T the 700 and 2100 MHz frequency bands.
No more lame T-Mobile ads trying to pick apart AT&T.
Mobile customers will have more choices in terms of data access. T-Mobile has gone the HSPA+ route vs. AT&T’s strategy of moving from 3G to 4G via LTE.
AT&T should improve T-Mobile’s shareholder value via better EBITDA service margins. Today T-Mobile has approximately 30% service margin as compared to AT&T’s 43%. Only Verizon Wireless has a better services margin with approximately 47%. Compare all this to the U.S. average service margin of 38%.
AT&T should improve T-Mobile’s monthly ARPU about $3 / month.
Most importantly, T-Mobile has experienced a high customer churn of over 3% since late 2008 compared to AT&T’s 1.3%.
As I said above, I believe Verizon Wireless will act soon to acquire another mobile network company soon. Which of course brings up the issue of antitrust and possible government intervention. Of course this is something that we are accustomed to in the U.S. given the previous dismantling of AT&T. This reminded me of a Stephen Colbert report on the subject:
Had another opportunity to be a guest on the VUC (Voice Users Conference). Also joining us on the call was Derek Jacobs and Mike Hill from CounterPath. We covered the release of Bria 3.2 specifically Multiple IM & presence (and initial Social Networking) support as well as the new Outlook ribbon/panel for Office 2010. We also discussed the latest versions of Bria for iOS and Android. The call was lively and certainly got into product, market and technical depths typically found on the VUC weekly calls including a great conversation on Bluetooth and VoIP.
Came across an interesting infographic from 
The results are in: LTE is clearly the Broadband winner. I conducted a non-scientific test utilizing the free 
As the PC market matures mobile devices are the focus for growth. However, tablets have wedged themselves between PCs and mobiles. Speaking of PCs, it is my opinion that our beloved computers are on the decline. According to Gartner, PC shipments in first quarter of 2011 suffered the first year-over-year decline in six quarters. The analysts are now scrambling to try to understand why there is a decline. Some believe it’s due to tablets. I believe it’s due to the simple fact that PCs are incredibly powerful today and don’t require frequent upgrades as they did in the past. Regardless, the results are in from Gartner:
It’s no doubt if you are reading this post you have discussed, debated and/or formed your own opinion of the announced AT&T and T-Mobile merger. And if you are like many that I have heard or read on the subject you probably think it’s a bad thing. I say: who cares? If anything it’s a better thing for you and me. The following are the main points of opposition that I have been hearing regarding the AT&T and T-Mobile combination:
As you probably heard Google and Sprint have 
There was a lot of coverage this week regarding LinkedIn’s promotion recognizing each individual user of their service. My number is 60,733. Each user was sent a Thank You note that identified the user by their registration number. Even more impressive was LinkedIn leveraged other Social Networking services to announce they now have over 100 million users. Here is my letter:
Read the 
Since Apple has recently 
Here is what I think we will see in April from Apple regarding MobileMe:
AT&T announced today that it will acquire mobile operator T-Mobile. I believe this is the first shot across the bow that will engage Verizon Wireless to get its M&A engine in gear to make similar acquisitions. Specifically I think Sprint’s days are numbered and will become part of Verizon Wireless sooner than later. This make the most sense in order to compete with AT&T. In terms of the AT&T / T-Mobile deal here are my thoughts:
This adds up to approximately 130 million subscribers for AT&T or just over a 40% market share. Verizon Wireless now is a distant second with 94 million subscribers. More importantly this gives AT&T access to additional spectrum. Specifically gives AT&T the 700 and 2100 MHz frequency bands.