I find it sad when my favorite or nostalgic brands disappear from the market. It happens a lot these days as technology and complicated consumer buying habits and behavior change. For me the death of a brand was always full of fascination and drove my interest into becoming a marketeer. Brands were powerful and living entities to me. And of of course all things come to end (even brands) eventually. But why do brands die? This question was rekindled when I noticed an article the other night that reported the 10 Brands That Will Disappear in 2012 by Douglas McIntyre, 24/7 Wall St. Here is the list:
Sony Pictures
A&W
Saab
American Apparel
Sears
Sony Ericsson
Kellogg’s Corn Pops
MySpace
Soap Opera Digest
Nokia
At first glance when you look at the list you may not be surprised. Maybe that’s because you have not purchased the product(s) form the companies/brands recently. Or perhaps you have read story after story about the brand’s (and therein company) demise. When I viewed the list I saw a common theme: None of the brands had been successful at transforming themselves to answer competitive, market and/or end users ever changing landscape. Over my tenure this single observation has been a common theme of significant market failures. You would think avoiding such failures would be easy enough. However the most difficult thing to do for people and a management team is accepting that their corporate direction needs to change based on external variables. Most do not embrace change well let alone the ability to address the things that require an evolution in thought, approach and go-to-market application.
As an example Nokia (on the list above) was the market leader at one time commanding a 40% or more leadership position in the handset business. They were the caretaker of the handset business and helped navigate the direction of mobile endpoints for themselves, their competitors and operators. If you wanted something done in the handset business from go-to-market models to standards, Nokia had to be involved. The company had a significant power position in the industry. However, one competitor rocked the mobile landscape and leveraged end-user pent-up demand for a single device that was an Internet browsing device, media player and e-mail device—and it was a phone too. Obviously I am referring to Apple and the revolutionary iPhone. That single device cracked the armor and with similar competitors (specifically Android OS based) Nokia was taken down. Nokia failed to transform itself – from device to go-to-market model – to effectively compete with the new handset onslaught. Nokia’s “iPhone” was the N810. The N810 was a clunky over sized smartphone. It lack everything the iPhone had and was. The critical mistake for Nokia was recognizing the migration of users’ needs from a phone to an all-encompassing device that supported e-mail, Internet browsing and mot importantly media content. Apple was able to leverage their iPod leadership and offer that perfect device (at the time). This was the beginning of the end for Nokia.
We could examine each brand above (and maybe add RIM to the list as well) and identify where each company had failed to (1) recognize the need for change based on market needs and/or (2) failure to embrace the change required of their companies. As I said above this is one of the most challenging facets of management’s job.
Whether you are in a management position at your company or not, I challenge you to holistically look at your business and identify the areas that might require change.
I decided since it was Father’s Day I would post something a little different. I have recently started using iMovie more on the desktop and iPhone and have really come to enjoy it. It’s powerful, intuitive and works well to quickly gather various media and make a short film. As an example while watching my daughter pogo stick out front I took a quick clip via the built-in phone camera and imported it into iMovie (for the iPhone). Next I used a ready-made theme, added some sound effects and voila I had a short, produced clip:
Yesterday my daughter had a baseball game and I decided to take some video of her “at bats” and some various still shots of the game and the after party at our sponsor’s shop. After return home I moved the content into iPhoto and then loaded iMovie. From there I had access to all the content I would need to create the short film. I even decided to include a great baseball song: John Fogerty’s Centerfield. The result is the following clip:
This morning I wanted to test out the Bria for iPad softphone via my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE Mobile Hotspot MiFi 4510L device. I have used the MiFi mostly while commuting back and forth between Chicago and my home in Evanston to check e-mail and web surfing. I am getting ready for the upcoming eComm 2001 event later this month. We want to make sure we have alternative sources of broadband data connectivity in case the Wi-Fi services does not cut it (which usual is FAIL). This morning I discovered that not all MiFi services are created equally. It seems that the Verizon service blocks UDP traffic. This is unfortunate for VoIP users as most services are based on UDP—a few are TCP. The good news is CounterPath’s softphone products all support TCP and UDP. However, this got me thinking. I can use the Bria softphones on my mobiles (AT&T via the iPhone and Verizon via Thunderbolt) and UDP traffic flows just fine. What if I enabled the hotspot feature on my Thunderbolt? Would that allow UDP traffic? In a word. Yes. I was able to do a call between my CounterPath PBX and OnSIP accounts via G.722. The call quality was perfect. So as they say there is always more than one way to skin a cat. In this case a MiFi connection.
I purchased a new mobile for my 11 year old daughter-her first. I tried to get her a feature phone (a.k.a. dumb phone) but she was not having it. Instead we gravitated to the iPhone and Android phones ultimately selecting the LG Phoenix. The phone was a bit smaller than others but a decent phone by the looks of the specifications. We were excited to leverage a family plan in conjunction with my wife’s account (she has an iPhone 4). The family minutes are shared for an extra $10 a month, the SMS family (unlimited plan) is $30 / month and the data plans are not yet sharable. However this is soon to change as AT&T confirmed shared data plans are coming. Since then there has been speculation regarding exactly how the data plans will come together. It’s difficult to guess what AT&T will do when it comes to the final plans. However when you consider recently published data from the team at Validas we can at least understand how data is being used. For example, the average data consumption of users across the four largest networks (not considering the AT&T / TMO combination) ranges from 345.8 – 429.4 MBs.
What’s interesting the above chart is the operators that have the iPhones have the lowest data usage. Then again they are two of the largest operators with many users still using feature phones-which would skew the data.
AT&T offerings three caped data plans: 200 MB, 2G & 4G. How many users use 200 MB or less data per month?
The majority of users across the big four networks do use less than 200 MBs. However there are a lot of users that use above the 200 MB limit indicating the other plans are necessary. I would guess the 4G plan is something that a smaller portion leverage.
What’s extremely telling is the median data usage. It is much higher on TMO than the other operators illustrating their strength in the smartphone category.
The net-net of all is data is growing and is expected to continue to dominate network traffic with IMS (i.e., LTE and beyond). I anticipate AT&T will have a sharable data plan that is slightly fair for 2 family users but better for 3 or more. I predict that AT&T will give a family a data plan that is an extra $10 per month per phone/device, but not necessarily discount the data plans that are currently available. I hope I am wrong. For now I have my daughter on a small plan and have trained her to seek Wi-Fi networks until a more reasonable plan is available.
Piper Jaffray provided an interesting snap shot between the developers of the WWDC of 2008 and that of the recent conference. Mac application development is significantly down from 2008 (50% to 7%) showing what we already know: Mobile is where it’s at. Desktop applications are still important but the growth is in mobile. The survey is a bit Apple-severing or at least too biased to take advantage of all data (example “Ease of Development” type questions), but it does give a good glimpse of some of the questions I have for Apple developers. For example what is the largest complaint about the App Store? 40% said “Other” (which is meaningless), 38% said “Apple’s strict limitations” while 11% answered “The Approval process”. I have to agree with the 38%.
Final observation was the split of application develop across different platforms:
This fairly matches up with what you would expect based on the smartphone shipments + usage stats we have seen.
Here are the survey results published by Piper Jaffray:
I figured since it was Friday I would post a few videos that I find hilarious. They all are from The Onion—”America’s Finest News Source” and are very well done with high production quality. I got the idea to post after reading much of the ridiculous press about the upcoming Apple Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco. The hype is unbelievable and “Onion” like. With posts about the hanging of banners to the new iCould login screen it has been a continual source of humor this week.
Here are the videos in no particular order and please note some may contain adult language and/or content:
Apple Introduces Revolutionary New Laptop With No Keyboard:
New Apple Friend Bar Gives Customers Someone To Talk At About Mac Products:
New Google Phone Service Whispers Targeted Ads Directly Into Users’ Ears:
I can’t believe I would ever utter the words “IMS is finally taking off”. Not surprised that IMS (or IP Multimedia Subsystem) would progress at some point but it was been a long time in the making. Heavily based on vendor influenced speciations originating with the mobile standards body 3GPP, IMS has grown to include wireline standards organizations. IMS is based on an all IP infrastructure offering voice, messaging and multimedia applications. There are a variety of phases (a.k.a. releases) to reach full IMS network compliance for mobile operators as prescribed by the 3GPP and laid out nicely in this Wikipedia article. As an exmaple, LTE is part of release 8 of the IMS deployment. In total there are so far 10 releases covering IMS.
The numbers—In 4Q10 there was a 41% increase in worldwide revenue over the previous quarter according to Infonetics Research. In total 2010 witnessed a 24% increase in spending to $503 million. The majority of deployments in 2010 were based on fixed services (including those from mobile network operators) with over 50% of them represented in Asia – Pacific (i.e., China, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam). However, in 2011 the mobile operators will start to aggressively deploy IMS through LTE and associated applications. The top NEPs (Network Equipment Providers) are heavily competing for their share of the IMS pie. This includes the usual suspects: Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia Siemens Networks. However more interesting is the spending that is going to non-NEPs (such as SBC vendors).
The pie chart above does include VoIP, however most of the VoIP services being deployed are based on the same core technologies that are used in IMS. Much of what is depicted above represent vendors that are strong in enable session mediation and of course core network equipment. Alcatel Lucent is the overall leader on the key call control component (CSCF).
Compare the above results with last years:
Cisco and Nokia Siemens have fallen while Sonus has increased their share. I think in 2012 we will see a similar results to 2011 since this year those vendors will be scaling their sales.
For 2011 we will see continual growth moving into significant subscriber uptake across VoIP and IMS.
As usual, I was drinking a cup of coffee and reading the news off my Twitter feed the morning of May 10th, 2011 when I witnessed the death of longtime VoIP associate Skype. This is not based on recent events of the significant network failure and forced an adware-style push down it’s users throats—all within a month of Microsoft’s acquisition of Skype. It is my opinion that Skype will slowly be depreciated under Microsoft and ultimately die. I do see the acquisition as a great thing for the VoIP industry, good for Skype stake holders (from a financial pov) and a flash in the pan of greatness for Microsoft. I did a quick post over on the CounterPath blog that covered a few high-level points on my take of the Microsoft / Skype combo–it coves why I think it’s good for the VoIP industry. This post covers why I think Skype will die eventually.
Since the acquisition of Skype I have read many press & analysts stories about the acquisition and found that much of the coverage lacked any real insight into the the long-term potential of the Microsoft / Skype combination.
Here are my thoughts:
On paper the deal looks great. I do agree that on the surface it makes sense to combine the two companies. However, what’s on paper and longer-term reality are two different things. For example Microsoft’s buying prowess of online ad companies has not turned into what Microsoft intended. For example the aQuantive acquisition has been a disappointment. As reported this month in USA today: “One glaring example is aQuantive, where sales grew 51% the year before Microsoft bought it. Three years later, in fiscal 2010, Microsoft’s annual report blandly notes that advertiser and publisher tools revenue, aQuantive’s core business, fell from 2009 even as the rest of the industry bounced back from the recession. aQuantive’s Razorfish ad agency was sold for $530 million in 2009 — less than half what the same buyer, French ad-agency holding company Publicis Groupe, had paid for rival Digitas in 2006. Contrast that with what happened when Microsoft spun off Expedia in the late 1990s, a prelude to the one-time piece of MSN becoming the world’s biggest travel agency.”
Further, as recall the failed integration of the Danger acquisition. Danger was one of the most promising platforms pre-iOS / Android days but simply lost its luster after the Microsoft innovation. Some have told me it will be different this time as Skype will be a separate BU. I think this is one of the most ridiculous arguments I have ever heard. There is no way things go smoothly between the various power groups that overlap Skype within Microsoft. Take a look at the mix via this snippet from the infographic I posted last week:
Does anyone reading this blog think for a second that MSN/Live, Lync and Skype are going to get along when it comes to voice, messaging and video strategy? Also which group ends up on Xbox? How does Windows Phone play between MSN/Live, Lync and Skype messaging? There are a lot of egos and jobs on the line so it will be a battle that will no doubt stub innovation and progress as it relates to the Skype acquisition.
Also the acquisition of Skype assumes Microsoft will move at the same pace as an Internet company. This will not happen. Even run as a “separate” company there is no evidence that Microsoft can keep up the development momentum of Skype. Even with Steve Ballmer’s cheerleading:
I did have a difficult time understanding where tablets would fit into my everyday life. Now that I have one I can say I am a three device guy: (1) Mobile, (2) Computer (laptop) and (3) Tablet. By the way, the list is in order of the devices that are most important to me. The Tablet grew on me given my use of the iPad (1 and now 2). I find that I use the device when I am on the train/plane (commuting), at work as a “follow me” device to meetings, offices etc. and as my new desk phone (via Bria VoIP softphone), while watching TV (so I can look up sport related stats or other information), and lying in bed reading. It’s a great companion device when the mobile’s screen is not big enough and the laptop is too much. Nielsen conducted a survey and found the following usage across Tablets, eReaders and Mobiles:
Nielsen also noted U.S. Tablet & Smartphone adoption over the last year:
Note the penetration of Smartphones and Tablets. I see Tablets as the death of Netbooks and most likely eReaders and not PCs. Many think that Tablets are eating into PC revenues. This is just not true. As Gregg Keizer over at Computerworld points out in his article: iPad cannibalization talk crazy, says analyst.
Expect Tablets to continue to have significant growth. According to research firm IHS, from 2010 to 2015, a total of 888.7 million media tablets will be shipped. Media tablets will reach 262.1 million units by 2015, rising at a 72.1 percent CAGR from 17.4 million units in 2010.
If you don’t have a Tablet yet, I would be willing to bet you will over the next few years.
I came across this great infographic from CreditScore and Focus. You can find the orignal post on the Focus blog. It’s a fantastic depiction of the facts and the incredible journey of Skype.
I find it sad when my favorite or nostalgic brands disappear from the market. It happens a lot these days as technology and complicated consumer buying habits and behavior change. For me the death of a brand was always full of fascination and drove my interest into becoming a marketeer. Brands were powerful and living entities to me. And of of course all things come to end (even brands) eventually. But why do brands die? This question was rekindled when I noticed an article the other night that reported the 10 Brands That Will Disappear in 2012 by Douglas McIntyre, 24/7 Wall St. Here is the list:
I decided since it was Father’s Day I would post something a little different. I have recently started using 
This morning I wanted to test out the 
I purchased a new mobile for my 11 year old daughter-her first. I tried to get her a feature phone (a.k.a. dumb phone) but she was not having it. Instead we gravitated to the iPhone and Android phones ultimately selecting the LG Phoenix. The phone was a bit smaller than others but a decent phone by the looks of the 
Piper Jaffray provided an interesting snap shot between the developers of the WWDC of 2008 and that of the recent conference. Mac application development is significantly down from 2008 (50% to 7%) showing what we already know: Mobile is where it’s at. Desktop applications are still important but the growth is in mobile. The survey is a bit Apple-severing or at least too biased to take advantage of all data (example “Ease of Development” type questions), but it does give a good glimpse of some of the questions I have for Apple developers. For example what is the largest complaint about the App Store? 40% said “Other” (which is meaningless), 38% said “Apple’s strict limitations” while 11% answered “The Approval process”. I have to agree with the 38%.
I figured since it was Friday I would post a few videos that I find hilarious. They all are from 
I can’t believe I would ever utter the words “IMS is finally taking off”. Not surprised that IMS (or IP Multimedia Subsystem) would progress at some point but it was been a long time in the making. Heavily based on vendor influenced speciations originating with the mobile standards body 3GPP, IMS has grown to include wireline standards organizations. IMS is based on an all IP infrastructure offering voice, messaging and multimedia applications. There are a variety of phases (a.k.a. releases) to reach full IMS network compliance for mobile operators as prescribed by the 3GPP and laid out nicely in this Wikipedia 
As usual, I was drinking a cup of coffee and reading the news off my Twitter feed the morning of May 10th, 2011 when I witnessed the death of longtime VoIP associate Skype. This is not based on recent events of the significant network failure and forced an adware-style push down it’s users throats—all within a month of Microsoft’s acquisition of Skype. It is my opinion that Skype will slowly be depreciated under Microsoft and ultimately die. I do see the acquisition as a great thing for the VoIP industry, good for Skype stake holders (from a financial pov) and a flash in the pan of greatness for Microsoft. I did a quick 
I did have a difficult time understanding where tablets would fit into my everyday life. Now that I have one I can say I am a three device guy: (1) Mobile, (2) Computer (laptop) and (3) Tablet. By the way, the list is in order of the devices that are most important to me. The Tablet grew on me given my use of the iPad (1 and now 2). I find that I use the device when I am on the train/plane (commuting), at work as a “follow me” device to meetings, offices etc. and as my new desk phone (via 
